Finally Time for Some Red River Roundball

After a lengthy layoff and flying under the national sports media's radar (thanks in large part to owner Mark Cuban's almost fanatical aversion to publicity during these playoffs) for more than a week, the Dallas Mavericks are just hours away from finally tipping off the Western Conference Finals.

Following their rousing sweep and total evisceration of the Los Angeles Lakers in game four, the Mavericks are brimming with confidence, but so too are the Oklahoma City Thunder, after winning their first two playoff series since relocating the franchise. It is usually during playoff series that rivalries are born, and with the obvious geographical proximity and the Red River Rivalry between the Longhorns and Sooners already a big part of the fabric of sports fans in both cities, it likely won't take long before Mavs fans are calling Thunder point guard Brian Westbrrok a flopper or OKC fans booing Tyson Chandler for his boistrous chest pumping.

Looking at their meetings this year, let's see how the teams match up:

Dallas vs Oklahoma City:

	Dallas	OKC
Wins	2	1
PPG	103.0	98.3
FG%	46.7	45.7
3PT%	37.1	34.1
FT%	84.6	73.6
RB	46.3	40
AST	23.3	23.3
TO	13.3	11

Both of Dallas' wins against the Thunder came in Oklahoma City, and Dirk Nowitzki really only participated in the first game in November, scoring 34 points; he sprained his knee early in their second meeting and sat out the third tilt. It's a very small sample size, but the Thunder really don't have anyone who can bother Dirk defensively. They will throw Thabo Sefolosha on him to try and utilize his length and athleticism to try and disrupt him in the same fashion that worked for Golden State back in 2007, but Nowitzki has learned to carve up these kinds of defensive schemes since then.

The NBA's leading scorer, Kevin Durant, averaged 29.3 points per game against Dallas, but in the two Dallas wins was limited to just 2 and 5 points in the fourth quarter. Russell Westbrook was really held in check by the Mavericks' defense, averaging just 14.3 points per game, and in the Mavs wins, Westbrook was a putrid -27 total. Add in the fact that Durant and Westbrook at times seem to be feuding for the ball and the Mavs could be catching a team going through some turmoil, especially in crunch time in close games.

The Tyson Chandler Factor cannot be understated; Chandler twice grabbed 18 rebounds against the Thunder, his season high. Ironically, Chandler was traded to OKC last year, but the trade was rescinded due to medical concerns and the Mavericks were the lucky beneficiaries. Since these two teams last played each other, the Thunder have added center Kendrick Perkins in an effort to shore up their middle, but his lack of mobility and athleticism will do little to slow Chandler.

Dallas has too many weapons and is too experienced in crunch time playoff basketball for the Thunder, and Westbrook's erratic play will doom OKC.

Mavs in 7.

Take Dis Witchooo!

Following the Mavericks series clinching win in Portland in game 6 of that series, Dallas fans had to reach for the Q-tips to clear their ears after hearing longtime Mavs critic Charles Barkley not only refused toimmediately state that the Los Angeles Lakers would be his pick to win their upcoming series against Dallas. Seconds later, they really had to be questioning what universe they were in when Barkley stated that the Lakers don't have a chance to stop Dirk Nowitzki and called his game “one of the most unique” he had ever seen.

In a recent column on ESPN.com, Bill Simmons addressed Nowitzki's play in these playoffs with equal adoration: “To Dirk Nowitzki, who reinvented himself over the years as a fiery competitor with the single most unstoppable move in basketball: his foul line post-up game that always seems to result in (A) him whirling around his defender and getting a layup, (B) him spinning around, sticking his elbows right in the defender's mug and launching a jumper that starts over Dirk's head, or (C), him fading away with an awkward-looking fade-away that has to rank alongside Hakeem's Dream Shake and McHale's mega-fallaway in the Shots That Seem Technically Impossible But Go In Anyway pantheon. Do you have any idea how that shot goes in? Me neither. I also have no idea how to stop that post-up game. Double him and he kicks to an open shooter. Single him and he scores. You can't win.”

Now that the Mavericks have won two road playoff games in a row, something they have not done since the opening road in 2006 against the Memphis Grizzlies, and dispatched of a team (Portland) in a series that many experts predicted them to lose, NBA pundits are finally able to let go of their dismissive opinions of Dirk and the Mavs and actually heap praise on how magnificently Nowitzki has performed in this postseason.

Somehow, in his latest Postseason MVP Rankings column, ESPN's David Thorpe had Nowitzki ranked 7th – a full six spots behind Memphis' Marc Gasol, who he placed in the top spot. Granted, Gasol has been enormous in helping get the Grizzlies in to the second round for the first time in that franchise's history, but he's not even the best player on his team in the playoffs thus far (that would be Zach Randolph.)

Where should Dirk really be ranked? I decided to assemble the stats in the playoffs thus far for the seven players that I would consider for MVP, and see how Nowitzki stacks up.

PLAYER
PPG
FG%
3PT%
FT%
RB
USG RATE%
% OF TEAM'S POINTS*
PER
+/-
Nowitzki
27.4
46
46
90
8.7
39.0
35
26.09
6.7
L. James
25.4
48
30
76
9.4
30.3
30
28.60
6.9
D. Wade
25.3
47
28
85
7.3
35.6
33
29.26
7.3
K. Bryant
24.4
45
39
82
3.9
39.2
34
23.09
6.7
Z. Randolph
22.3
47
33
87
9.3
29.6
29
24.40
3.6
K. Durant
31.6
48
48
82
6.3
32.7
36
28.36
3.3
D. Rose
27.0
38
23
87
4.7
39.3
33
24.63
6.7
All stats from NBA.com, except PER from ESPN.com.
*Percentage of team's scoring while player on the floor.

The first thing that leaps off the page to me is Nowitzki's phenomenal shooting numbers. None of the other candidates even really come close. Factor this offensive efficiency with the fact that he surprisingly has the third highest usage rate (behind only Kobe and Rose, two players that absolutely dominate the ball when they're on the floor) and it becomes apparent what a unique and deadly weapon Dirk has been through the first seven games of these playoffs.

The one stat that will eventually determine the real MVP is, of course, wins. If Dirk can keep the Mavs winning, then there is no doubt who the MVP will be and he will have cemented his position as one of the greatest players ever to play this game. The 2006 Finals and the Golden State loss will become nothing more than footnotes on his Hall of Fame plaque.

Mavs Back on Track?

It was just a mid-season game in front of a relatively aloof crowd in New Jersey, but somehow when the ball was rolling around on the rim, deciding whether or not to fall through, it felt like the fortunes of the Dallas Mavericks' season was in the balance.

A loss against the lowly Nets would signify that the the Mavs' stellar start to the season was a mirage , while a win – no matter how ugly or lackluster – would keep Dallas on pace with the Western Conference's elite.

Dirk Nowitzki's twelve-footer finally found the twine; the Mavericks escaped New Jersey with an unsightly 87-86 win and the team, their coaches and fans could all let out a sigh of relief. The season still had a heart beat.

While the Mavs remained in the top half of the Western Conference standings, they still were unable to generate any swagger heading in to the opening game of a four-game home stand. Their opponent on the other hand, the Los Angeles Clippers, strutted on to the court oozing confidence. Yes, the Clippers came in to the American Airlines Center led by their high-flying rookie Blake Griffin and punched the Mavs right in the mouth, shot a blazing 68% and held a double-digit lead at halftime. I was hoping that Mark Cuban had dispatched his helicopter to go pick up Nowitzki at his house as the MVP candidate was completely M.I.A. The team as a whole looked old, slow, and completely disinterested; only JJ Barea and Tyson Chandler showed any signs of life and carried the team offensively.

Carlisle even went the mad scientist route and threw together an off-the-cuff lineup of Barea, Jason Kidd, Brendan Haywood, Ian Mahinmi and Jason Terry to see if he could shake any life in to the squad. In one of the most disjointed basketball games I have ever witnessed due to an avalanche of whistles, the Clippers managed to score 62 first half points, the most Dallas has surrendered to an opponent all season.

Going in to the game's second half, it once again felt like fans' confidence in the Mavericks was teetering. Had they truly lost all of their mojo that they had before Nowitzki and Caron Butler went down or could they come up with an answer to the Clippers' brash attack?

Thankfully, a better defensive effort, combined with a slew of Baron Davis turnovers, enabled Dallas to get back in to the game quickly and eventually take the lead near the end of the third quarter. The crowd came to see Blake Griffin dunk, but instead were witnesses to a gaggle of Mavericks' flushes and Barea joyously driving Davis to revert to his brain-dead, “me-first” persona. Brendan Haywood's defense on Griffin and the rest of the Clippers' front line was a revelation, as was Jason Terry regaining his shooting stroke.

After back-to-back Nowitzki threes, the Mavs had turned a 15-point deficit in to a 17-point lead half-way through the fourth quarter. All of the angst and fury that callers that were getting ready unleash on the post-game shows was silenced as the Mavericks had finally remembered how to score – in their 10 games before the Clippers game, Dallas was averaging just under 90 points-per-game, including a game against Memphis where they only manged to register a measly 70 points. The 112 points they threw up on the Clips was their season-high and included a whopping 63 points from their bench.

With three very winnable games remaining on their home stand, hopefully the Mavericks can use the second half of the Clippers game as a spring board and get their momentum moving in the right direction.

TO BE OR NOT TO BE AN ALL-STAR

This seems ridiculous to even ponder, but should Dirk Nowitzki be an All-Star this season? Before his injury on December 27, not only was he a lock to be named to the Western Conference All-Star lineup, but he was near the top of everyone's MVP list. However, missing nine games, combined with his statistical slump since he's returned to the lineup, has taken some of the shine off his campaign.

Then there's the fact that there are a slew of All-Star-deserving forwards in the Western Conference. Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant have been voted in by the fans, and that leaves only three forward spots on the roster open. The game is in Los Angeles, so it's a virtual lock that rookie phenom Blake Griffin will take a spot. We still have Minnesota's Kevin Love, Memphis' Zach Randolph and Portland's LaMarcus Aldridge to deal with. If Nowitzki is still “walking in quicksand,” as he put it, as we get close to All-Star weekend, I say he suddenly catches the flu and lets one of the younger guys make the trip out west.

Stars Hit Iceberg. Film at 11.

“If you're gonna drive the car in to the ditch, you may as well total it.”
-Craig Ludwig (following the Stars' 7-4 loss to Calgary).

However, if you do total your car, try not to take your wife's car out and t-bone a bus a few nights later.

You'd think that the Dallas Stars players would have been loaded for bear going in to Vancouver last Monday night. They had just been throttled by the lowly Calgary Flames 7-4, and the Canucks were one of only two teams that the Stars were chasing in the Western Conference standings and a win against them would close the gap between them.

Bear? Nope. Try a squirt gun.

During the second period of the Stars 7-1 loss to the Canucks, I received a text from a buddy of mine:

“Let's see...total ineptitude in own zone, grossly unacceptable special teams, bad goaltending, an own goal...The 2009 Stars are back!”

In two games, the Stars had given up as points as the Green Bay Packers gave the Chicago Bears last Sunday: 14.

Talk about the dam bursting.

Going in to last weekend's final two games of Dallas' Western Canada road trip, the Stars were the hottest team in the NHL and were unbeaten in 2011. Their goalies had the top save percentage and goals-against-average in the league in January. Those numbers got throttled mercilessly in the last two games; from a .954 SV% and 1.42 GAA to .745 and 7.0.

Those numbers make I Saw the Devil look like a Disney flick.

The Stars' special teams took a nose-dive as well. In the eight games in January before the Twin Killings at the hands of Calgary and Vancouver, Dallas' power play was cruising along at 44% (12-27), but went 0-7 in the losses. Their penalty kill had become lethal to opposing power plays units, allowing just a single power-play goal in 2011 while posting an absurd 95.8% (23-24) penalty-kill percentage. That percentage was nearly slashed in half against the Flames and Canucks as the Stars only went 5-for-9 (55%).

Vancouver, specifically, has owned the Stars this season. In their two meetings, the Canucks have outscored Dallas 11-2 and shredded the Stars' penalty killing units, scoring on 6 of their 12 chances.

"We're all going to bounce back," center Brad Richards said, following the loss to Vancouver. "If not, we're going to have to find a different job. We'll take it in the chin tonight but we'll be back."

In the big picture, the Stars were 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and in good shape despite the blowout losses. As of last Wednesday, the Stars still had a fairly comfortable lead in the Pacific Division – three points up on Anaheim with 3 games-in-hand on them and 6 points over Phoenix, having played one less game than the Coyotes. They were still a single point behind Detroit for second in the conference, but slid to 6 points behind Vancouver.

The team is fortunate to have one more game before heading in to this weekend's All-Star break, and Dallas could not have hand-picked a better opponent than the Western Conference cellar dwellers and frequent Stars punching bag, the Edmonton Oilers, to help cleanse the team's palate from back-to-back beat downs.

“Guys were upset today. They didn’t need to be talked to,” said Stars coach Marc Crawford shortly after the team touched down in Dallas last Tuesday. “They knew they weren’t very good, weren’t good enough. I think you could go a step further and say they knew they had a real sub par performance last night. I expect them to be a lot better Wednesday.”

Let's hope so.

Without Dirk, There's Not Much to Talk About

Hurry up and get out of that suit Dirk! You're our only hope!

“Well Dirk’s not here, so let’s not talk about Dirk.”

In one terse response to a reporter's question following the Dallas Mavericks' lose to the Orlando Magic last Sunday, Head Coach Rick Carlisle pretty much summed up the mood of the team these days: frustrated and confused.

Carlisle and the Mavs' players may not want to talk about Dirk's absence or use him as an excuse for their recent struggles, but in reality, there's no avoiding it.

No Dirk equals few wins and demoralizing sledding for the Mavs. It's a good thing they got off to the white hot 24-5 start as they're now needing the buffer they created to keep them in the top half of the Western Conference playoff bracket. Since Dirk went down on December 27 in Oklahoma City, the Mavericks have stumbled to a 2-5 record and their scoring has dropped to just 92.3 points per game over their last seven games, after averaging 99.5 with their superstar in the lineup. While never considered a quality defender, Dirk's absence has killed the Mavericks on the defensive end as well; they've gone from giving up 93.4 points against with Dirk to 96.3 PA without him. They were once a +6.1 in scoring differential and are now a -4.0 in the WDE (Without Dirk Era)..

In the NBA, if a team is to be successful, it has to have a superstar. When a player like Nowitzki is taken out of the rotation, all of the other members of the team get bumped up a notch, or two in the Mavs' case as Caron Butler has been removed as well, and with rising minutes, their weaknesses become exposed. JJ Barea carried the offensive load in the loss against Milwaukee with a season high 29 points, but that can't be counted on regularly. Jason Kidd's offense has left him at a very inopportune time as he is averaging just 7.6 points per game in the last five games while shooting 25% from the field and 24% from three.

Even “Mr. Fourth Quarter,” Jason Terry, the player who the Mavs need more than ever with Dirk down, has been inconsistent. Over his past five contests, he is averaging just 15.6 points on 44% FG and a horrendous 25% on 3FG. Clearly, with no Dirk, he is the focal point of the opponent's defenses and he no longer gets the wide open looks that came with Nowitzki on the court. Ironically, the most reliable option has been the three-point fire balling of DeShawn Stevenson. The throw-in in last season's Caron Butler/Brendan Haywood trade, Stevenson has made the most of his increased minutes and has averaged 19.3 PPG on 48% shooting over the last four games and currently sits fourth in the NBA in three-point shooting.

The offensive quagmire has become so deep that the Mavericks signed former Cavalier and Timberwolves outside threat Sasha Pavlovic to a ten-day contract this week to try and bolster their attack.

Dirk's absence has revealed what many NBA commentators were offering as reason for Nowitzki's MVP candidacy – that no good team has such a precipitous drop-off from its top offensive option to its second scorer than the Mavericks – is accurate. They are lost on offense without him and at times are unwatchable.

A comparison of the top and second scorer on the top ten teams in the league (as of Jan. 12):

Team (Record)	Top Scorer	2nd Scorer	Difference
SAS (32-6)	Ginobili (19.0)	Parker (17.4)	1.6
MIA (30-9)	James (25.3)	Wade (24.9)	0.4
BOS (28-9)	Pierce (19.0)	Allen (17.6)	1.4
LAL (28-11)	Bryant (24.9)	Gasol (18.4)	6.5
Dallas (26-10)	Nowitzki (24.1)	Terry (15.6)	8.5
CHI (25-12)	Rose (24.3)	Boozer (20.6)	3.7
ORL (25-12)	Howard (21.2)	Richardson (13.9)	7.3*
OKC (25-13)	Durant (28.2)	Westbrook (21.9)	6.3
UTA (25-13)	Williams (21.8)	Millsap (17.8)	3
ATL (25-14)	Johnson (18.6)	Horford (16.3)	2.3

*The second-leading scorer for most of the season for Orlando was Vince Carter (15.1 PPG) so the difference was 6.1. However, even with Carter traded, Howard is still flanked by six double-figure scorers, Dirk has just two. Also, there is not a single team, no matter their record, in the NBA with as large a discrepancy between their top scorers as the Mavericks.

Thankfully, only four of Dallas' next eleven opponents possess winning records, but the Mavericks' recent losses to Toronto and Milwaukee – both at home – have shown that, in in their current state, nothing can be taken for granted. The Mavs have lost five of the seven games Nowitzki sat out. They only lost five of the twenty-nine he started.

There's no way around it; you can't talk about the Mavericks these days without first issuing the disclaimer, “without Dirk in the lineup...”