In one terse response to a reporter's question following the Dallas Mavericks' lose to the Orlando Magic last Sunday, Head Coach Rick Carlisle pretty much summed up the mood of the team these days: frustrated and confused.
Carlisle and the Mavs' players may not want to talk about Dirk's absence or use him as an excuse for their recent struggles, but in reality, there's no avoiding it.
No Dirk equals few wins and demoralizing sledding for the Mavs. It's a good thing they got off to the white hot 24-5 start as they're now needing the buffer they created to keep them in the top half of the Western Conference playoff bracket. Since Dirk went down on December 27 in Oklahoma City, the Mavericks have stumbled to a 2-5 record and their scoring has dropped to just 92.3 points per game over their last seven games, after averaging 99.5 with their superstar in the lineup. While never considered a quality defender, Dirk's absence has killed the Mavericks on the defensive end as well; they've gone from giving up 93.4 points against with Dirk to 96.3 PA without him. They were once a +6.1 in scoring differential and are now a -4.0 in the WDE (Without Dirk Era)..
In the NBA, if a team is to be successful, it has to have a superstar. When a player like Nowitzki is taken out of the rotation, all of the other members of the team get bumped up a notch, or two in the Mavs' case as Caron Butler has been removed as well, and with rising minutes, their weaknesses become exposed. JJ Barea carried the offensive load in the loss against Milwaukee with a season high 29 points, but that can't be counted on regularly. Jason Kidd's offense has left him at a very inopportune time as he is averaging just 7.6 points per game in the last five games while shooting 25% from the field and 24% from three.
Even “Mr. Fourth Quarter,” Jason Terry, the player who the Mavs need more than ever with Dirk down, has been inconsistent. Over his past five contests, he is averaging just 15.6 points on 44% FG and a horrendous 25% on 3FG. Clearly, with no Dirk, he is the focal point of the opponent's defenses and he no longer gets the wide open looks that came with Nowitzki on the court. Ironically, the most reliable option has been the three-point fire balling of DeShawn Stevenson. The throw-in in last season's Caron Butler/Brendan Haywood trade, Stevenson has made the most of his increased minutes and has averaged 19.3 PPG on 48% shooting over the last four games and currently sits fourth in the NBA in three-point shooting.
The offensive quagmire has become so deep that the Mavericks signed former Cavalier and Timberwolves outside threat Sasha Pavlovic to a ten-day contract this week to try and bolster their attack.
Dirk's absence has revealed what many NBA commentators were offering as reason for Nowitzki's MVP candidacy – that no good team has such a precipitous drop-off from its top offensive option to its second scorer than the Mavericks – is accurate. They are lost on offense without him and at times are unwatchable.
A comparison of the top and second scorer on the top ten teams in the league (as of Jan. 12):
| Team (Record) | Top Scorer | 2nd Scorer | Difference |
| SAS (32-6) | Ginobili (19.0) | Parker (17.4) | 1.6 |
| MIA (30-9) | James (25.3) | Wade (24.9) | 0.4 |
| BOS (28-9) | Pierce (19.0) | Allen (17.6) | 1.4 |
| LAL (28-11) | Bryant (24.9) | Gasol (18.4) | 6.5 |
| Dallas (26-10) | Nowitzki (24.1) | Terry (15.6) | 8.5 |
| CHI (25-12) | Rose (24.3) | Boozer (20.6) | 3.7 |
| ORL (25-12) | Howard (21.2) | Richardson (13.9) | 7.3* |
| OKC (25-13) | Durant (28.2) | Westbrook (21.9) | 6.3 |
| UTA (25-13) | Williams (21.8) | Millsap (17.8) | 3 |
| ATL (25-14) | Johnson (18.6) | Horford (16.3) | 2.3 |
*The second-leading scorer for most of the season for Orlando was Vince Carter (15.1 PPG) so the difference was 6.1. However, even with Carter traded, Howard is still flanked by six double-figure scorers, Dirk has just two. Also, there is not a single team, no matter their record, in the NBA with as large a discrepancy between their top scorers as the Mavericks.
Thankfully, only four of Dallas' next eleven opponents possess winning records, but the Mavericks' recent losses to Toronto and Milwaukee – both at home – have shown that, in in their current state, nothing can be taken for granted. The Mavs have lost five of the seven games Nowitzki sat out. They only lost five of the twenty-nine he started.
There's no way around it; you can't talk about the Mavericks these days without first issuing the disclaimer, “without Dirk in the lineup...”
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